A Review of the Chatham House report on Iran’s 2009 presidential election

ABSTRACT

The recent Iranian presidential election, held on June 12 of 2009, has become embroiled in considerable controversy, not least of all because it is the first of 25 elections that have been held in the last 30 years of the history of the Islamic Republic where the final outcome of the count has been rejected outright and regarded as invalid by many observers. A report copublished by Chatham House and the Institute of Iranian studies at St Andrews University in Scotland has attracted much attention because of its conclusion that the results of the election appear to be implausible, problematic at best, and indeed more conducive to the notion that they have been artificially manipulated, although this is not explicitly stated. In this paper, we examine all of the points raised in the report and demonstrate how most of the them can be explained in terms of natural processes. Reference is also made on a more mathematical analysis offered by Walter Mebane “Note on the presidential election in Iran”, as well as some other statistical studies, where it is has been deemed necessary and appropriate to do so. Given the importance of this election in shaping the future of the Middle East, in both the short and long term, it is imperative that the results of this election are carefully scrutinized and analysed.

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